Throughout the year, farmers have opportunities to listen to agricultural market outlooks. However, utilizing the information from an outlook, such as a historical perspective on production and yield, current marketing trends, and future weather patterns, may be challenging for a farmer to adopt for their farm business. 

Outlook defined

An outlook can be defined as:

• View from a particular place and time – may change depending on the time of year, market reports, industry changes, global adjustments, etc. 
• Point of view – academic-based information, organization-based information, product-based information, etc. 
• Prospect for the future – review existing components that might contribute to future outcomes. 

A farmer’s goal when listening to any outlook presentation should be, to begin with the end in mind. (see Figure 1) No one knows what the future may hold. The goal should be to consider the information that will be presented and how that can be applied in their farm business.

A farmer should decide how they are taking in the presentation.  Is their goal to be entertained by the presentation? There is nothing wrong with being entertained, just ensure that the approach is matched to management decisions that result from this goal. 

Information: Unbiased vs biased

If the farmer’s goal is to be informed by the presentation, then the next step is to consider if the information that is being provided is unbiased or biased. The definition of bias is “to give a settled and often prejudiced outlook to,” according to Merriam-Webster dictionary (https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bias). Unbiased is defined as “free from bias.” (https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/unbiased). 

An example of biased information might be if a presenter is trying to sell a product. The data for that product might be unbiased, but the way the information is presented or discussed might be biased towards that product and supportive of the manufacturer of the product. Presenters who do not gain from the discussion of data or a product are more likely to share unbiased information. 

Sources of unbiased data may come from sources that are publicly available to all farmers, at the same time, and access to the data is available at no cost. Several examples include data from USDA (https://www.usda.gov/) such as Agricultural Marketing Service (https://www.ams.usda.gov/), Economic Research Service (https://www.ers.usda.gov/), Risk Management Agency (https://www.rma.usda.gov/), etc.  

One thing to watch out for or a “red flag” in an outlook presentation of biased information may include broad sweeping generalizations without underlying justification or “Everyone should do this…” blanket statements.

Next steps

The next step for a farmer is to decide what to do with the information that is being shared in an outlook presentation. They might be asking, “So what?”  Listening to the information and making the informed decision to take no action is a choice. Dr. Brenda Boetel, Extension Agricultural Marketing Specialist, suggests “That’s typically not your best course of action. If {a farmer} chooses to do nothing, have it be an active choice. Rather than just no nothing because of indecision or lack of information.” Instead, a farmer should consider the following questions to help answer, “So what?”

• What is included in that? 

Was the information all encompassing of the market? Was it one-sided? Which perspective was the presenter on – buyer, seller, neutral?  

• What would you like to see more of?  

What points were mentioned that are more applicable to a farm business or farm enterprise? What information needs to be clarified or sought out?

• Why does that matter? 

How could this impact a farm business? Consider the “What ifs” scenarios when decision-making. 

Answers to these questions will assist a farmer with management decision implications. Any action that can be taken from the information presented in an agriculture commodity outlook can make a difference in the future of the farm’s business.